'tis not an exact science.
Games come, games go, games leap over each other in their enthusiasm to be at our fingertips, whilst other skulk in the shadows hiding from our stern gaze.
In other words - the "coming soon" section is just a guide.
The way I look at it is "don't buy this cos' you're gonna get it - one day, eventually - 'for free' from Metaboli."
I also look at it as a way of keeping an eye on what publishers/developers Metaboli are dealing with - cos' once you get one from a publishers it raises the chance of others (in my simple mind) And then they go and release "Hearts of Iron III" sompletely out of the blue not long after I gave up waiting and bought half of Paradox's strategy catalogue. Grrr!"